Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.186906 1.346617 1.515557 1.707131 1.917889 2.142228 2.398621
2025-02-02 0.960922 1.179475 1.425076 1.719835 2.062204 2.445544 2.905333
2025-02-09 0.777788 1.030974 1.332551 1.714248 2.180163 2.725934 3.408776
2025-02-16 0.634978 0.909029 1.254743 1.715258 2.304214 3.023370 3.958072
2025-02-23 0.501224 0.777821 1.148026 1.667188 2.362296 3.245720 4.436070
2025-03-02 0.384252 0.649542 1.027217 1.585271 2.367271 3.400617 4.841872
2025-03-09 0.312193 0.572980 0.966545 1.576792 2.467796 3.686519 5.438251
2025-03-16 0.249022 0.498076 0.897133 1.546524 2.533721 3.929739 5.994576
2025-03-23 0.213177 0.461147 0.880376 1.592075 2.712151 4.341318 6.809284
2025-03-30 0.166847 0.395708 0.807316 1.540189 2.738646 4.536097 7.329887
2025-04-06 0.134670 0.349367 0.759018 1.521598 2.813185 4.804654 7.971756
2025-04-13 0.107042 0.305189 0.707040 1.489427 2.861421 5.034762 8.568389
2025-04-20 0.090661 0.282427 0.693771 1.527617 3.035471 5.480956 9.533716
2025-04-27 0.076038 0.259720 0.676888 1.557283 3.198060 5.920615 10.516087
2025-05-04 0.062268 0.234822 0.651007 1.566524 3.325735 6.312367 11.446206
2025-05-11 0.051131 0.213239 0.628308 1.578957 3.459932 6.723156 12.429014
2025-05-18 0.039441 0.185201 0.584946 1.542964 3.500846 6.978733 13.173337
2025-05-25 0.028786 0.155142 0.529593 1.472889 3.469259 7.106039 13.711290
2025-06-01 0.022918 0.139093 0.506437 1.470311 3.568302 7.467396 14.658570
2025-06-08 0.017572 0.121878 0.475862 1.445948 3.620632 7.747095 15.478910
2025-06-15 0.015032 0.115530 0.475130 1.492531 3.822439 8.309719 16.812727
2025-06-22 0.011006 0.098880 0.438829 1.445961 3.823469 8.499546 17.501040
2025-06-29 0.008415 0.087561 0.416199 1.430390 3.888857 8.812594 18.419699